Q1 2026 Market Outlook


As we turn the calendar, we also move from the year of the Snake into the year of the Horse in the Chinese zodiac. The Snake represents wisdom, patience, and careful observation. It is also associated with renewal and shedding skin to make room for what comes next. The Horse brings momentum, confidence, and forward movement. That transition in the Chinese Zodiac oddly mirrors what last year looked like for us at TMRW Wealth.

We spent much of the year studying, planning, and asking hard questions with one goal in mind: doing what is best for the families who trust us to guide their financial lives. It was a season focused on getting things right rather than moving quickly. In 2025, we shed some things, including our affiliation with our broker-dealer (among other things). 2026 already feels different. The shift became clearer as we entered the year of the Horse. Our move to a new broker-dealer marks a shift into motion. The foundation is in place, and now it is about executing with care while continuing to simplify complexity for those we serve.

That momentum continues with the addition of a new team member joining us on January 20th. My goal with these Quarterly Outlooks is not to predict markets or react to headlines, but to provide perspective and reinforce how we think about risk, opportunity, and long-term planning.

Personal Side:

Lila is now halfway through her Junior year at Page High School. As she tours colleges and begins to decide on her next steps in life, I remain in awe of how much more mature she is than I was at 16. She is shifting into dance competition season this week.

Amelia is navigating her final year at St Pius. She has matured beyond words, and my baby girl is a captain on the cheer team and doubling down on math classes in preparation for high school. Watch out world, she is getting her braces off this quarter.

Kristy and I continue to burn up I-40 and even the Amtrak train back and forth from Raleigh to Greensboro as schedules allow. She is busy with the booming real estate market in the Triangle, and still somehow finds a way to show up at the right times.

Business Side: A New Chapter for TMRW Wealth

Anna, Tiffany, and Tayler showed up every day with professionalism, calm, and care during a period of real transition. We all even managed to make a tough situation a lot of fun. I am incredibly grateful for these amazing women and excited for the culture that has come together here.

We are excited to welcome a new member to our team starting January 20. He is a CFP® with over 20 years of experience in financial planning and wealth management, and we are looking forward to adding his extensive investment experience to our team. Expanding the team thoughtfully has always been part of our long-term vision.

We are in the process of completing our transition to our new brokerdealer, Kestra. While these changes largely happen behind the scenes, they matter. We know that change can be a scary thing. This move allows us to offer a more streamlined, modern experience, improved technology, and greater efficiency in how we serve you. Most importantly, it supports our commitment to doing what is best for the families who trust us with their financial lives.

Change is never easy and we believe this one positions us well for the future. We are thankful for your patience through this change. For the few families we have not moved over (mostly due to busy holiday schedules), we will be following up as the new year begins. We will be back to our regular review schedule by the middle of February.

Online Access

One of the benefits of our transition is improved online access and less sites to visit. You can use your same username and log in through this link. If you have any issues or need your password reset, just email us at [email protected] and we will reset your password, and give you your username.

Looking Back at 2025

Markets slithered to positive results in the year of the snake, with the S&P gaining 16.4%, the DOW up roughly 13% and the NASDAQ up 20.4% in a very volatile year. Economic growth remained uneven, inflation continued to moderate but remained part of the conversation, and interest rates stayed higher than many investors had grown accustomed to over the past decade.

Volatility showed up at times, but so did resilience. As we often remind clients, markets rarely move in straight lines. Periods like the one we just experienced tend to reward discipline, diversification, and patience far more than prediction or emotion. That remains true today.

Looking Ahead to 2026

To start the first quarter, there are some reasons to believe the markets may run to start the year of the Horse. We also see some challenges the markets could navigate in 2026. As we reposition portfolios over the coming week, we are looking to keep things in a very balanced state.

To keep the horse running

Here are a few themes we’re watching closely as the year unfolds:

•Will AI valuations hold, and will the hype spread to real corporate earnings in other sectors? Federal Reserve policy and inflation dynamics (along with jobs numbers) will remain in focus.

•Will international companies continue their growth from last year?

•Will the defense sector rise with the rising geopolitical tensions?

The most important variable in successful investing is still behavior. Our job is to help you stay anchored to what matters most, especially when markets try to test resolve.

Grateful and Optimistic

As we begin 2026, I feel both grateful and excited. Grateful for the trust you place in us. Grateful for a team that cares deeply about doing things the right way. Excited about what we are building and where we are headed together. If you have questions about your plan, the markets, or anything happening at the TMRW Wealth, please reach out. Conversations like those are why we do what we do. Thank you for allowing us to be part of your financial lives. I am looking forward to the year ahead.

With gratitude,

Matt Matthew K. Logan, CFP®

TMRW Wealth

We simplify your tomorrow, so you can focus on what really matters.

Subscribe to the Newsletter

Broker Check Logo